THE EFFECT OF INTERVAL LENGTH AND MODEL BASIS ON FUZZY TIME SERIES ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING.

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dc.contributor.authorOMONIYI, Adeola Kolade
dc.date.accessioned2014-02-24T08:43:06Z
dc.date.available2014-02-24T08:43:06Z
dc.date.issued2006-01
dc.descriptionA THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (M.Sc.) IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING FACULTY OF ENGINEERING AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY ZARIAen_US
dc.description.abstractFuzzy Time Series (FTS) forecasting technique is the amalgamation of fuzzy logic and time series technique. The critical issue in FTS forecasting is the determination of the interval length. This paper therefore, is a research on the effect of varying interval length and model basis on electric load forecasting using Fuzzy Time Series Model. The methodology adopted is presented and the data used is the load (in MW/MVA) obtained from PHCN over a 24-week period. The data for 18 weeks is used as the test data while the remaining 6 weeks is the validation data. It is shown that varying interval length and model basis give different forecasting results and that interval length five gives a significantly better result than others based on the quantitative and qualitative performance test. Furthermore, the results obtained show that model basis of four gives better forecasting result when compared to model basis of five and six. The results obtained are presented and discussed from the standpoint of their degree of consistency exhibited by the two elements.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/2368
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectEFFECT,en_US
dc.subjectINTERVAL LENGTH,en_US
dc.subjectMODEL BASIS,en_US
dc.subjectFUZZY TIME,en_US
dc.subjectSERIES ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTINGen_US
dc.titleTHE EFFECT OF INTERVAL LENGTH AND MODEL BASIS ON FUZZY TIME SERIES ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING.en_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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