THE EFFECT OF INTERVAL LENGTH AND MODEL BASIS ON FUZZY TIME SERIES ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING.
THE EFFECT OF INTERVAL LENGTH AND MODEL BASIS ON FUZZY TIME SERIES ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING.
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Date
2006-01
Authors
OMONIYI, Adeola Kolade
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Abstract
Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) forecasting technique is the amalgamation of fuzzy
logic and time series technique. The critical issue in FTS forecasting is the
determination of the interval length. This paper therefore, is a research on
the effect of varying interval length and model basis on electric load
forecasting using Fuzzy Time Series Model. The methodology adopted is
presented and the data used is the load (in MW/MVA) obtained from PHCN
over a 24-week period. The data for 18 weeks is used as the test data while
the remaining 6 weeks is the validation data. It is shown that varying interval
length and model basis give different forecasting results and that interval
length five gives a significantly better result than others based on the
quantitative and qualitative performance test. Furthermore, the results
obtained show that model basis of four gives better forecasting result when
compared to model basis of five and six. The results obtained are presented
and discussed from the standpoint of their degree of consistency exhibited
by the two elements.
Description
A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL IN
PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE
DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (M.Sc.) IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY
ZARIA
Keywords
EFFECT,, INTERVAL LENGTH,, MODEL BASIS,, FUZZY TIME,, SERIES ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING