WIND SPEED FORECASTINGUSING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE AND MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL
WIND SPEED FORECASTINGUSING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE AND MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL
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Date
2017-12
Authors
ODEKINA, Gabriel Onuche
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Abstract
Wind speed forecasting is pertinent in order to have a power system that is reliable and
secured. The Vector Autoregressive model and the Multinomial logistic regression model
were applied on a 30 year daily data obtained from the department of Soil science, Ahmadu
Bello University, Zaria. The Vector Autoregressive model shows that non of the
meteorological variables namely; rainfall, air temperature, earth temperature, sunshine,
humidity, pressure and evaporation significantly affect wind speed. It was also found that
each of the meteorological variables have varying effects on Wind speed over a future time
horizon as depicted by the impulse response function. The Wind direction was also examined
using the Multinomial logistic regression where it was found that there is no Statistical
significant difference between Wind speed and the Northern and Western direction. To this
end, this study posits that wind speed is not significantly being influenced by the
meteorological variables and the northern and Western directions do not exert any effect on
Wind speed.
Description
A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER DEGREE IN STATISTICS DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, FACULTY OF PHYSICAL SCIENCE, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA, NIGERIA
Keywords
WIND SPEED,, FORECASTINGUSING,, METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES, VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE,, MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC,, REGRESSION MODEL,