"MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR EVALUATING ROAD MAINTENANCE NEEDS AND INTERVENTIONS"
"MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR EVALUATING ROAD MAINTENANCE NEEDS AND INTERVENTIONS"
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Date
1999-09
Authors
EZEMENARI, Lawrence Obinani,
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Abstract
A mathematical model for prioritizing road maintenance in terms of the timing
of maintenance intervention and scope of work done is developed. Three sub-models are
incorporated namely, classification, performance and cost sub-models. The classification
sub-model uses the roughness measurement to classify the road sections into one of six
different states according to their degree of disrepair. The performance sub-model
utilizes the first order MarKov Chain Process to simulate future states of the road
pavement. The cost sub-model computes both the user cost and maintenance intervention
costs. The models are then used to simulate the performance of Rano-Sumaila road in
Kano State of Nigeria for a period of twenty years. Results indicate that prompt
response to maintenance needs reduces overall expenditure on maintenance over time and
also that maintenance expenditure has a high rate of return. The benefit-cost ratio of
intervention expenditure on different maintenance activities was found to vary from about
twenty eight to less than two, depending on the degree of disrepair on the road before
the intervention. It was also confirmed that yearly upgrading of all road sections to the
best state would cost less than half of yearly reconstruction of only the totally collapsed
sections.
Description
THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE POSTGRADUATE
SCHOOL, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA,
NIGERIA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF
M.SC DEGREE IN HIGHWAY AND
TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING.
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITYZARIA, NIGERIA.
SEPTEMBER, 1999
Keywords
MATHEMATICAL,, MODELLING,, EVALUATING,, MAINTENANCE,, NEEDS,, INTERVENTIONS"