ANALYSIS OF ANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND ITS EFFECTS ON CROPS YIELD IN MORO LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF KWARA STATE, NIGERIA

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dc.contributor.authorABDULSALAM, Jamila Ahmed
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-18T13:46:57Z
dc.date.available2019-09-18T13:46:57Z
dc.date.issued2019-05
dc.descriptionA DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA- NIGERIA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN GEOGRAPHY DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, FACULTY OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIAen_US
dc.description.abstractDistribution of crops is largely dependent on the rainfall pattern in Nigeria, which is variable in nature. This variable rainfall pattern leads to anomalies, which could pose socio-economic and developmental challenges as they threaten food security and the economy of Moro Local Government Area of Kwara state. Hence, a knowledge of the behavior of rainfall anomalies and its influence on crops yield will contribute to the well-being of the teeming population. This study analyzed the effect of anomalous rainfall on the yield of some selected crops (maize, sorghum, cassava, and yam) dominantly cultivated in the study area. The study spanned over two decades from 1991 to 2015. Anomalous rainfall was derived using Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI). Time series analysis was employed to determine the trend of crops yield. Bivariate correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between rainfall anomalies and crops yield after the data was harmonized to a common base using log10 by the means of MINITAB software. Correlation was employed to test stated hypothesis at 0.05 significance level. The variation in crops yield accounted for by rainfall anomalies and projected trend of anomalous rainfall and crop yield in ten (10) years‟ time to 2025 were conducted using Simple linear regression. The result showed fluctuation between wet and dry years, with more occurrence of dry years. It also showed an increasing trend in the annual yield of all the selected crops. The correlation analysis showed that rainfall anomalies has a positive relationship (r = 0.001, 0.221, 0.065) with the yield of maize, cassava, and yam, but showed a negative relationship (r = -0.194) with sorghum yield. This implies that as rainfall anomaly increases, the yield of maize, cassava and yam increased, while sorghum yield decreased. The result further showed no significant relationship between rainfall anomalies and crops yield, as the null hypothesis was accepted. The co-efficient of determination (R2) showed that rainfall anomalies accounts for only 0.1%, 3.8%, 4.9%, and 0.4% of variation on the yield of maize, sorghum, cassava, and yam respectively. This suggests that the yield of crops could be attributed to other climatic and non-climatic factors. Based on the predictions, result showed that rainfall anomalies will be negative from 2016 up to 2019, indicating dry years which will decrease in magnitude and will be positive from 2020 to 2025, indicating wet years which will increase in magnitude in the coming years. The crops yield (maize, sorghum, cassava, and yam) will also be on the increase in the coming years, assuming the pattern observed is maintained. It was recommended that farmers should introduce short duration maturing crop varieties and adopt mixed cropping system, that will boost high crop yield in Moro Local Government Area.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/11939
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectANALYSIS,en_US
dc.subjectANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND,en_US
dc.subjectEFFECTS ON CROPS YIELD,en_US
dc.subjectMORO LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA,en_US
dc.subjectKWARA STATE,en_US
dc.subjectNIGERIA,en_US
dc.titleANALYSIS OF ANOMALOUS RAINFALL AND ITS EFFECTS ON CROPS YIELD IN MORO LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF KWARA STATE, NIGERIAen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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