ASSESSMENT OF WATER AVAILABILITY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN GORONYO RESERVOIR, SOKOTO STATE, NIGERIA
ASSESSMENT OF WATER AVAILABILITY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN GORONYO RESERVOIR, SOKOTO STATE, NIGERIA
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Date
2021-11
Authors
MUHAMMED, Lukman Adesile
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Abstract
Climatic parameters are exposed to variation due to the atmospheric concentration of
greenhouse gases.Hence, it is essential to assess the water availability and demand
under the climate variation in Goronyo Reservoir, Sokoto State Nigeria. since the
supply of water is one of the significant tasks in water resources management. In this
study, estimation of available water, demand, and unmet demand was simulated using
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Software with the opinion of assessing the
availability of water for its uses under climate change, TheReservoir is situated in
Goronyo Local Government Area, Sokoto State, Northwest Nigeria. The study uses
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP model) softwareto assess the influences of
climate variability on the water availability of the area. This model allows simulation
and analysis of various scenarios and water allocations. The water availability, Demand,
Supplies, and Unmet were modeled with climatic data and water use rate. The model
was satisfactorily calibrated and validated. Simulations were proposed for various
climatic situations considering global climate change model (GCM) predictions and the
linear trend of the data. Nine (9) selected climate change scenarios of temperature
increases (i.e. 0, +0.4, +0.8, +1.2 oC) combined with an increase or decrease in rainfall
(0, -10%, +10%) were applied for the study area in the WEAP model software for
simulation. The model was used to analyze the linkage between water availability and
demand for domestic and irrigation uses. This was projected to the future to analyze
what would happen in years to come up to 2070. The demand and unmet were obtained
as the output of the model. Results showed that the mean average volume of 737.9
million cubic meters (MCM), the maximum average volume of 824.3 MCM mainly in
the wet period ranges from May – October, and the minimum mean average volume of
546.6 MCM mostly in a dried month i.e. April available in the reservoir. The annual
total demand for various uses from 2018 to 2070 was obtained to be 7069.4 MCMand
the annual average of 133.4 MCM. Meanwhile, the unmet demand was with annual
total ranges from 1157.5 MCM to 1199.7 MCM and an annual average of 21.84 MCM
to 22.64 MCM. The highest unmet was recorded under Scenario 9 with a 1.2 oC
increase in temperature and a10% decrease in precipitation. In Conclusion, it was found
that the demand in the area is 6 times higher in years to come i.e. 50 years from now
and the deficit is 61% increased.It is recommended that the irrigation system (furrow
irrigation system)should be improved to minimized water demand and also extraction
from other means such as groundwater could relieve the stress on the available source,
the reused of wastewater for other domestic uses such as the washing of lawn and
watering of gardening will also help a lot in utilizing limited available resources.
Description
A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE
STUDIES, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD
OF MASTER OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN WATER RESOURCES AND
ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL
ENGINEERING,
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING,
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY,
ZARIA, NIGERIA