MODELLING MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF NIGERIA USING GEOSTATISTICAL APPROACH
MODELLING MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF NIGERIA USING GEOSTATISTICAL APPROACH
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Date
2018-01
Authors
GARBA, Yakubu Attah
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Abstract
Understanding spatial variability of mean surface temperature (MST) of Nigeria is
necessary for ecological restoration and national planning toward effects of unstable
climate conditions. This study developed models for MST derived from two geostatistical
procedures and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) using measurements of
monthly MST in Nigeria.The two geostatistical approaches were Ordinary Kriging
(OK) and Regression Kriging (RK).The Ordinary kriging (OK) was developed in
two dimensions with isotropy and in three dimensional plane with anisotropy and
regression kriging (RK) that employed both correlation with independent variables
and spatial autocorrelation simultaneously. Four statistics were considered to evaluate
the performance of the approaches used. For the fitted MLR model, some of the
predictors were significant at p-value of 0.05 with R2 equal to 88 percent. The oneleave-
out cross-validation indicated that RK produced minimum errors compared to
OK model . The OK with zonal anisotropic shown that the spatial continuity in
the directions of North and North East were stronger than the directions of East
and South East. The kriging weights for OK and RK were similar as shown in
the maps.The RK model outperformed the OK and the MLR and was therefore
recommended for Long term prediction of mean Surface Temperature of Nigeria.
Description
A THESES SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES,
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA-NIGERIA
IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT FOR THE AWARD OF
MASTER OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN STATISTICS
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS
FACULTY OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA
Keywords
MODELLING MEAN,, SURFACE TEMPERATURE,, NIGERIA,, GEOSTATISTICAL APPROACH