COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR FORECASTING FOREST DEPLETION IN AFAKA FOREST RESERVE, KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA

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dc.contributor.authorOLANIYI, OLUSHOLA MICHAEL
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-04T13:56:30Z
dc.date.available2016-03-04T13:56:30Z
dc.date.issued2015-08
dc.descriptionA THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTERS OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY, FACULTY OF SCIENCE AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA NIGERIAen_US
dc.description.abstractThis study seeks to forecast forest depletion in Afaka Forest Reserve in Kaduna State and to compare results of Markov Chain Model and CA- Markov model with a view to determine a better model in forecasting forest depletion. The extent of forest covers in 1973, 1990 and 2009 were examined. Forecast of forest depletion for 2028 was done using Markov chain model and CA- Markov model. The year 2028 was used based on the fact that markov chain model can forecast based on the year interval of the input satellite imageries (1990-2009 an interval of nineteen years). Both primary and secondary sources of data were used. The primary source included use of Landsat images of the study area for 1973, 1990 and 2009. Idrisi Selva was used for analysis of these data and for forecasting forest depletion. Student T- test was used to test for significant differences between results of the two predictive models. The result revealed that the forest was declining at the rate of 0.09% per year. Forest forecast for 2028 using markov chain model reduced from 3724.25ha in 1973 to 3168.75ha in 2028. Using CA- markov to forecast for 2028, the result revealed that forest cover will decrease to 3019.54ha. The result was tested using T-test statistics. There was no statistically significant difference between results of the two models used in forecasting forest depletion. However, CA- Markov was better between the two models because it gave the spatial distribution of these changes. New land use/land covers that were likely to emerge were also indicated in the result of CA-Markov model which were lacking in Markov chain model. On the basis of the finding this study therefore recommend CA- Markov model in forecasting forest depletion.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/7430
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjecti COMPARATIVE,en_US
dc.subjectANALYSIS,en_US
dc.subjectPREDICTIVE,en_US
dc.subjectMODELS,en_US
dc.subjectFORECASTING,en_US
dc.subjectFORESTDEPLETION,en_US
dc.subjectAFAKA FOREST RESERVE,en_US
dc.subjectKADUNA STATE,en_US
dc.subjectNIGERIAen_US
dc.titleCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR FORECASTING FOREST DEPLETION IN AFAKA FOREST RESERVE, KADUNA STATE, NIGERIAen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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