MICRO-AIDED ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES OF PRICE DATA OF COWPEAS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA

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Date
1987-06
Authors
ADAMU, LUCKY
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Abstract
This research is a study of Cowpea trend over a period of five years. The time series technique is used with the aid of the computer-. The data is that of cowpea wholesale price from 1971 to June 1976. For each year the monthly price; a r e given in Naira per sack, a sack being equivalent to about 240Ibs or 108 kgs. The data is subjected to the following calculations average of 12 months, detrended values, and seasonal indices leading to moving averages and seasonally adjusted values. The data moving averages and the seasonally adjusted values are plotted on the same graph. These plots form the basis of the observation. All the three plots, that is9 the raw data, moving average. and the seasonal adjusted values show similar' oscillations over the period. The pattern of oscillations of the cowpea price is most clearly shown by the moving average plot; it is observed from the plot that beside the general trend these is a seasonal variation. The seasonal variation adheres strongly to the pattern in which the months of August and September form the period of peak price, while those of December and January form the period of floor price. The year 1974 displays an inregular high fluctuation in price when compared with the other year's covered by the data. It is clear that from 1971 through 1976 the floor wholesale price of cowpea was increasing. From the research it has been established that there is a long-term trend of rise in cowpea wholesale price and there la a seasonal variation in price for each year with the peak price coming up in August and September while the floor price occurs around December and January.
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A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO POST GRADUATE SCHOOL, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR AWARD OF THE POST-GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN COMPUTER JUNE, 1987.
Keywords
MICRO-AIDED,, ANALYSIS,, TIME,, SERIES,, PRICE DATA,, COWPEAS,, NORTHERN NIGERIA.
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