MICRO-AIDED ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES OF PRICE DATA OF COWPEAS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA
MICRO-AIDED ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES OF PRICE DATA OF COWPEAS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA
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Date
1987-06
Authors
ADAMU, LUCKY
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Abstract
This research is a study of Cowpea trend over a period
of five years. The time series technique is used with the
aid of the computer-.
The data is that of cowpea wholesale price from 1971 to
June 1976. For each year the monthly price; a r e given in Naira
per sack, a sack being equivalent to about 240Ibs or 108 kgs.
The data is subjected to the following calculations
average of 12 months, detrended values, and seasonal indices
leading to moving averages and seasonally adjusted values.
The data moving averages and the seasonally adjusted values
are plotted on the same graph. These plots form the basis of
the observation.
All the three plots, that is9 the raw data, moving average.
and the seasonal adjusted values show similar' oscillations
over the period. The pattern of oscillations of the cowpea
price is most clearly shown by the moving average plot; it is
observed from the plot that beside the general trend these is
a seasonal variation. The seasonal variation adheres strongly
to the pattern in which the months of August and September form
the period of peak price, while those of December and January
form the period of floor price.
The year 1974 displays an inregular high fluctuation in
price when compared with the other year's covered by the data.
It is clear that from 1971 through 1976 the floor wholesale
price of cowpea was increasing.
From the research it has been established that there is
a long-term trend of rise in cowpea wholesale price and
there la a seasonal variation in price for each year with the
peak price coming up in August and September while the floor
price occurs around December and January.
Description
A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO POST GRADUATE SCHOOL,
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR AWARD OF THE POST-GRADUATE
DIPLOMA IN COMPUTER
JUNE, 1987.
Keywords
MICRO-AIDED,, ANALYSIS,, TIME,, SERIES,, PRICE DATA,, COWPEAS,, NORTHERN NIGERIA.