A STATISTICAL MODEL OF FLOW LEVELS IN RIVER LOKKO - ADAMAWA STATE
A STATISTICAL MODEL OF FLOW LEVELS IN RIVER LOKKO - ADAMAWA STATE
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Date
1993-05
Authors
OLOGBOSERE, OSAYOMONRE ANTHONY
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Abstract
Monthly water levels for four years in Lokko river were
studied statistically using the time series theory, and an
ARMA (1.1) model was identified as suitable to describe the
data. An estimation model was developed, the results
obtained were found to be satisfactory, except in the rainy
season when the error could be as high as 37 percent on the
average, and as high as 50 percent for a single event, due to
random storm rainfall input to the streamflow which the model
is unable to account for fully. A factor of safety of 1.6
is therefore recommended for the multiplication of the estimated
levels for early warning and for engineering works a
factor of safety of 2.2 is recommended
Description
PRESENTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE
DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN WATER RESOURCES
AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY
ZARIA
MAY, 1993.
Keywords
STATISTICAL,, MODEL,, FLOW LEVELS,, RIVER LOKKO,, ADAMAWA STATE