COMPARISON OF FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR RIVER TARABA
COMPARISON OF FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR RIVER TARABA
No Thumbnail Available
Date
1991-11
Authors
OVAJIMOH, ABUBAKAR SALIHU
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Water resource designs based on flood are perfect examples of
decisions under uncertainty. Three types of uncertainties may
exist in a flood design problem - when the classical method is
used. These are natural, parameter and model uncertainties.
To reduce the parameter and model uncertainties, the Bayesian
procedure has been used. Three common probability distributions
(normal, log-normal, and exceedance) were considered. To reduce
the parameter uncertainty, the Bayesian procedure was applied to
these three distributions to give the corresponding Bayesian
probability models. To achieve this objective, flood discharge
data collected from Gassol gaging station we re taken as the sample
information while flood discharge data from eleven other selected
gaging stations in the same homogeneous area as Gassol in Upper
Benue River Basin were considered to be the prior (regional)
information. Natural uncertainty is also reduced by this proceedure.
To reduce the model uncertainty, Bayesian procedure was also
applied to estimate the marginal likelihoods of the three models.
Results showed that only the exceedance model fits the flood
discharge data.
Comparison of the classical method with Bayesian method shows
that Bayesian method predicts higher flood discharges than the
classical method. Also comparison of the regional (prior) method
(only in the case of exceedance model) shows that the Bayesian
method predicts lower discharges than the regional information
Description
A PROJECT REPORT SUBMITTED TO THE POSTGRADUATE
SCHOOL, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, IN PARTIAL
FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF
THE DEGREE 0F MASTER OF SCIENCE IN WATER RESOURCES
AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING.
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES AND
ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY
ZARIA, NIGERIA
NOVEMBER, 1991
Keywords
COMPARISON,, FLOOD,, FREQUENCY,, ANALYSIS,, RIVER TARABA