THE ROLE OF WEATHER ON THE OCCURRENCE OF COMMON DISEASES IN JOS NORTH LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, PLATEAU STATE, NIGERIA
THE ROLE OF WEATHER ON THE OCCURRENCE OF COMMON DISEASES IN JOS NORTH LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, PLATEAU STATE, NIGERIA
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Date
2015-08
Authors
NTEM, Golau Isa
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Abstract
Weather parameters play a role in the occurrence of diseases outbreak all over the world. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between weather elements (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) and the occurrence of malaria, pneumonia and meningitis in Jos North Local Government Area of Plateau State. The objectives of the study include; establishing the trend in the weather parameters and the selected diseases, assessing the relationship between the weather parameters and the selected diseases and determining the seasons of occurrence of the selected diseases. A ten year (2002-2011) meteorological data were sourced from the meteorological unit of the University of Jos and medical records of in- and out- patients treated for the three diseases in Jos North LGA were collected from the Jos University Teaching Hospital (JUTH) and Plateau Specialist Hospital for the purpose of the study. The data were analyzed using time series graphs in order to determine trends in the weather parameters and the selected diseases. Ordinary least square estimates of the multiple regression models was used to established relationship between the weather parameters and the diseases under study. This model was used so as to determine the relationship between the selected weather parameters and the diseases and to as well determine how much of variations in the reported cases of the diseases are accounted for by the weather parameters. Multiple bar graphs were plotted to determine the seasons of occurrence of the selected diseases. The trend in the weather parameters within the ten years of study revealed that temperature has a positive trend that is, it was increasing from year to year which was explained by the trend equation Y = 0.019x + 24.21. Both rainfall and relative humidity exhibit a negative trend; meaning that, on the average, rainfall and relative humidity were decreasing from year to year throughout the period of study which was supported by the trend equations Y = -10.66x - 1313 and y = - 119.5x + 578.9 respectively. Trends in the reported cases of the selected diseases revealed that malaria incidence has a negative trend that is, the number of people suffering from malaria decrease from year to year. The decrease is justified by the trend equation; Y = -119.5x + 3033. The trend for pneumonia and meningitis showed a positive trend, that is, the number of people suffering from the two diseases increase from year to year as indicated by the trend equations Y = 25.79x +61.36 and Y = 2.578x +37.26 respectively. Malaria showed a significant relationship with rainfall. Rainfall was positively related to pneumonia at 1% level of probability while relative humidity was found to be negatively related to pneumonia at 5% level of probability. Rainfall was found to be negatively related to meningitis at 5% level of probability while temperature was found to be positively and significantly related to meningitis at 1% level of probability. The three diseases under study all exhibited seasonal patterns in their occurrence. Malaria and pneumonia incidence are more prevalent during the cold and wet seasons with 282 highest reported cases of malaria in June and 21 reported cases of pneumonia in August. Whereas, the occurrence of meningitis was more prevalent during the warm and wet season with the highest peak mean of 7 reported cases in April. The study concluded that weather elements play a role in the incidence of diseases in Jos North LGA especially malaria pneumonia and meningitis. Therefore, climatic factors are important predictors of diseases incidence and should be considered along with other factors in mitigating the spread of weather sensitive diseases in the study area.
Description
A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, AHMADU BELLO UNIVRESITY, ZARIA, NIGERIA, IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN GEOGRAPHY
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY,
FACULTY OF SCIENCE,
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA,
NIGERIA.
Keywords
ROLE,, WEATHER,, OCCURRENCE,, COMMON DISEASES,, JOS NORTH LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA,, PLATEAU STATE,, NIGERIA.