AGRICULTURAL TRADE INTENSITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA
AGRICULTURAL TRADE INTENSITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA
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Date
2017-01
Authors
YAKUBU , Muhammad Mustapha
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Abstract
The divergence between agricultural trade intensity (ATI) and food security in Nigeria
suggests that the linkage is ambiguous. Illustratively, the degree of openness in the
agriculture sector increased from 9% in 1981-1985 period to 12% in 2011-2015 while a 25%
reduction in per capita daily dietary energy supply was observed during the same period.
This crucial nexus in Nigeria has received very little empirical attention with existing studies
being limited in terms of scope of food security and methodology employed. Therefore, this
studyexamined the impact of ATI on the three dimensions of food security (availability,
access and utilization)using separate models that were estimated using annual time series
data for the period 1981 to 2015. Sequel to establishing that the data were a mixture of I(0)
and I(1), the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged bound testing approach to cointegration was
used to investigate the existence and nature of the long-run and short-run relationships. The
error correction model-causality framework was employed to further investigate the extent
and direction of causation between ATI and food security. The study finds that ATI has a
negative and significantimpact on the three dimensions of food security in the long
run;suggesting a worsening of the food insecurity situation in Nigeria over the long term.
However, the positive impact of ATIon food security in the short run is not sustainable as it is
offset by the negative and significant impact in the long term but provides impetus for making
contemporaneous adjustments. The study concludesthat Nigeria has unduly relied on
agricultural trade and failed to appreciate the multi-dimensional and general-equilibrium
nature of food security, thereby leaving the country food insecure.Accordingly,the study
recommends an overhaul of the entire Sustainable Food System (SFS)in terms ofsustainable
food production, processing and storage; infrastructure, institutions and processes in a bid to
enhance food security in Nigeria.
Description
ADISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF
POSTGRADUATE STUDIES,
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD
OF MASTER OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN ECONOMICS
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS,
FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES,
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY,
ZARIA, NIGERIA
Keywords
AGRICULTURAL TRADE INTENSITY ,, FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA ,