SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF POPULATION AGING IN KWARA STATE, NIGERIA
SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF POPULATION AGING IN KWARA STATE, NIGERIA
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Date
2015-03
Authors
ORIRE, ISMAILA OLAYODE
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Abstract
Population aging is a term for shifts in the age structure of a population toward older ages, caused by longer life expectancy and declining fertility rates. Knowledge of a population‟s age profile is essential because it is a major determinant of service requirements, labour supply, consumer demand, and potential for future natural increases, development planning and evaluation of the quality of census enumeration. This study analysed the spatio-temporal pattern of population aging in Kwara State, Nigeria. Specific objectives are to:- examine the characteristics of the aging population; explain the trend of aging population; examine the factors that shape the pattern of aging; examine the health conditions of aging population; and examine the social conditions of aging population all in time and space in the study area. To achieve the objectives, the major data required in addition to basic demographic characteristics of respondents include household socio-economic characteristics; medical histories; living arrangements; coping strategies; patronage of geriatric infrastructures; as well as proportion and distribution of the aged population from two censal periods. Primary sources of data were questionnaire administration and Focus Group Discussion (FGDs). Additional data were sourced from census figures from the 1991 and 2006 censal periods and related published documents. Multi-Stage sampling approach was employed to sample 488 respondents age 60 and above, from six of the 16 LGAs spread across the study area. In addition to the use of descriptive statistics, trend analysis, factor analysis, multiple and stepwise multiple regression techniques were employed to analyse the data. Trend Analysis was used to examine the pattern of the aged population over time, while factor analysis was used to reduce the dataset as well as determine the variables accounting for spatial variability. The factor scores derived from the procedure was used to map the pattern of aging over space. Multiple and stepwise multiple regression analyses were used to rewrite the model equation with intention of arriving at the best fitted model. The findings revealed that 56.6% of respondents are males and 43.4% female. Also, 88% are in the young-old (60 - 79) age group, while 72% are muslims, 23.4% christians and 4% traditionalists. Religion serves as the most important later life coping strategy. Also, trading/business and farming are the most important occupations engaged in by 67.6% of the elderly. However, 21.7% earn about N23,000 and above, while about 60% generate less than N16,000 per month mostly through pensions and filial obligations. Also NHIS enrolment rate is low (19.3%), while duration of enrolment among 52.1% of enrolees is between 3-5 years. Lack of awareness/poor orientation were the chief reasons militating against utilization of the scheme. Furthermore, the results of trend analysis technique revealed a gradual increase in the aged population over the years, with Ifelodun (23,556) and Ilorin West (14,634) the most populous aged LGAs in 1991. However, by 2006, Ilorin West (21,037) and East LGAs (11,148) were the most populous. The result of factor analysis procedure identified 14 factors as contributing 63.95% to the variance in the explanation of aging, while stepwise multiple regression results further reduced these factors to 10 (Social wellbeing, Income, Support, Economic factor, Disability, Diseases, Health Insurance, Residential Quality, Recreational factor and Safety Nets). These factors were found to contribute 53.4% to the explanation of the pattern of aging, and with Social Wellbeing factor (SCWF) the most important factor influencing the aging pattern in Kwara State contributing 24.2% explanation.
The study concluded that aging has been on the increase in the study area. The population of the aged also varied in space from one LGA to the other, while the factors affecting aging also differ spatially. In this light, the factors affecting aging and the aged coping strategies differs from one LGA to the other. The study recommended among others, the establishment of a pro-elderly social health insurance or risk pooling scheme by government; and the need for structural incentives and creation of opportunities for many economically active aged people is essential, among others.
Description
SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF POPULATION AGING IN KWARA STATE, NIGERIA BY Ismaila Oloyede ORIRE (B.Sc. (Hons), M.Sc. (UNILORIN) Ph. D/SCIEN/05221/2008-2009 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POST GRADUATE STUDIES, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (PH. D) DEGREE IN GEOGRAPHY DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY, FACULTY OF SCIENCE, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA NIGERIA MARCH, 2015
Keywords
SPATIO-TEMPORAL, ANALYSIS, POPULATION, AGING