IMPACT OF GLOBAL CONFLICT AND TERRORISM ON SOME SELLECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE CASE OF NIGERIA
IMPACT OF GLOBAL CONFLICT AND TERRORISM ON SOME SELLECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE CASE OF NIGERIA
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Date
2011-06
Authors
Kure, Ezra Umaru
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Abstract
Globalization makes societies permeable to global turbulence and raises their
vulnerability to transnational public goods that impact them in accordance with
available fault lines. Like the recent global financial and economic crises, Nigeria is
exposed to global violent conflict, with economic consequences that need to be
explored. Assessing these costs is even more pertinent with the increased
utilization of terrorism in conflict that increases the economic risks associated with
the phenomenon, evidencing from the uniqueness of terrorism: its choice by the
weak in the society; its non-exclusiveness and proclivity for targeting large
numbers of innocent people (for the purpose of killing or harming them).
Obviously, the search for economic truths on violent conflict and Nigeria is
necessitated by the persistence and depth of the events over time, along with the
paucity of studies devoted to quantitative assessment of economic impact of
violent conflict in the country. Nevertheless, dealing with the issue requires an
expanded review of conflict literature to clarify unfamiliar concepts, while the
application of economic tools extends the discourse beyond the realm of politics,
which aid the consideration of violent conflict for optimal policy options in the
country. To that extent, a mid-size macro econometric model, estimated and
simulated, using a diverse set of data base on global violent conflict and terrorism
revealed mixed consequences for global violent conflict and terrorism in Nigeria:
domestic conflict are largely negative on the economy, including the direct
destruction of productive capital, which tend to widen with the spread of the
events across the country; regional conflicts impose fiscal stress on the
government in the form of arming that shift resources away from social and
economic sectors; transnational conflict and terrorism produce two broad impacts:
(1) it influences domestic violent conflict and so reinforces the negative
consequences of the events on the economy, and (2) induces foreign exchange
inflows through its impact on global oil production and oil price volatility. However,
the net impact on the economy depends on the efficiency of domestic economic
resource use as well as the strength of domestic institutions for conflict
management. While the research outcome is non-supportive of transnational
terrorism, which is obviously exogenous to Nigerian system in any case, it
nonetheless calls for judicious use of the opportunities that such conflicts bring
through effective savings and management of foreign exchange inflow attributable
to it. That way, the country is better placed to narrow domestic conditions that
could instigate the propagation of domestic violent conflict in the country.
Description
A Thesis
Submitted to the postgraduate school, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, in
partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of degree of Doctor of
Philosophy (PHD) in Economics
Keywords
GLOBAL CONFLICT,, TERRORISM,, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: