THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED INTER-STATE CONFLICT OVER
THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED INTER-STATE CONFLICT OVER
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Date
2014-10
Authors
HASSAN, DAIYABU MUHAMMAD
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Abstract
Climate change has been recognized as one of the most important global challenges of the 21st
Century in several ways: climate change poses threats to the availability of environmental
resources like cropland and water which sustain the livelihoods of billions of people across the
world. According to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, West Africa
is one of the regions that are highly susceptible to the impacts of adverse climate change
(translated as big increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme events like droughts and
floods). This is in addition to the recognition by the UN that water will become the critical
resource of the twenty-first century due to growing demands in many regions in the world. Given
the presence of nearly all the conditions that engender transboundary water conflicts in West
Africa, there is therefore the risk of climate change induced disputes arising from competitions
to have greater access to/and control of the water resources of the Niger River Basin between
the riparian states. Our work attempts to assess and analyse these risks. The theoretical
arguments of the two main research perspectives on water and international conflicts (i.e. the
Realist/water war/neo-Malthusian perspective and the Liberal Institutionalist/ Water
Cooperation/Cornucopian perspective) are both persuasive and also suffer from some important
shortcomings. Consequently, in order to eliminate these limitations and to have a comprehensive
assessment of the risks of climate change induced inter-riparian conflicts over the Niger River
basin, the environmental conflict model as represented by Nils P. Gleditsch was adopted and
modified Both primary and secondary sources of data were used and the interpretation of the
data was done qualitatively. In conclusion, the study has highlighted the significance of the
climate change factor as an important threat to the livelihoods of millions of people in the Niger
basin area and consequently a threat to the stability of the West African sub-region. The findings
reveal that the climate change factor has generated anxiety and consequently triggered
competition to secure greater access to/and control of water resources between the riparian
states of the Niger River basin. Secondly, the treaty rules that govern the behavior of the riparian
states of the Niger River basin (as currently constituted) are not comprehensive and therefore
cannot prevent the onset of disputes if the current trends of global warming, climate change and
the decline in water availability continued in the basin.
Description
DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POST-GRADUATE STUDIES
AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE
REQUIRMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF
PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE
OCTOBER, 2014
Keywords
RISKS,, CLIMATE CHANGE,, INTER-STATE CONFLICT,, WATER RESOURCES,, NIGER RIVER,, BASIN,, WEST AFRICA.